A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
